March 2020 — By John Mathis
We see light at the end of this tunnel. Like many others, our firm has experienced firsthand the personal side of this crisis, and we are so grateful for the heroes in medicine!
On the business front, we have all witnessed the resiliency of this economy which has weathered down times before – from our prior lives on Wall Street, we have worked through the similarly dark periods of 1987, 2000 and 2008. These market dislocations were born in and fueled by uncertainty. As renowned investment strategist Jim Paulsen said in a recent interview, “Give me bad news any day over complete uncertainty.”
This current downturn is likely to get worse – Goldman Sachs is now expecting 2Q GDP to decline 24%1 – but then better. This aggressive downturn is driven by a public health issue that we are all hoping can be contained as the healthcare professionals and politicians try to “bend the contagion curve” in the short term. Notably, with social distancing, summer weather and perhaps new therapies, Goldman sees 3Q potentially rebounding to 12% growth. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive actions and government stimulus should provide much needed liquidity relief.
Nevertheless, the uncertainty persists – so our team has formulated a view on how to cope, and we are launching a series of calls with subject matter leaders to better understand key areas, including government programs, legislation and practices we see working amongst our clients.
With this note, we call out what we are seeing and hearing from our clients, prospects and middle market ecosystem:
All of this may add up to a more open mind toward taking the inbound call from the buy-side or choosing to launch a sell-side process – but not a fire sale as these uncertain conditions are external and broad based and not structural.
From the Buyer’s point of view, our market checks suggest that some companies and private equity groups are looking forward. Many investors have ample capital to deploy and are considering opportunities with a long-term hold period in mind – these investors are sophisticated and are more focused on the quality and availability of great assets than general market conditions. We have seen our buy-side clients leaning on the Harbor View team more heavily to continue curating the acquisition pipeline while our client leadership looks to triage their personnel, customers and operations.
While this Coronavirus (COVID-19) threat has hit hard, the disease itself appears to be getting better understood, and there are now country-wide examples of flattening contamination curves. So, what is next? On the other side of this challenge, how will your business be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable changes, such as mobility, virtual work and more efficient healthcare delivery?
We wish everyone well.
1 Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group – Sunday Night Insight – March 22, 2020.
2 Medium – “What really is the difference between AR / MR / VR / XR ?”